Foot & Soccer Soccer Match Reports, Football News
Whether you are a seasoned punter or a newbie, identifying value bets is a great way to increase your earnings. While predicting accurately the outcome of an event remains the most important aspect of long-term success, learning how to spot value in soccer betting markets will return more money for every wager won.
What is a value bet?
A value bet is a wager placed on sporting events in which the odds a bookmaker provides are higher than the actual probability of that event happening. While punters have been looking to explore value since the beginning of gambling by using different ways, there is now a well-established formula to determine if a bet is valuable.
the formula is: odds*implied probability/100
You have a value bet if the formula returns a positive number for the selected outcome. However, if the number is negative I advise you to shop elsewhere. This is important for long-term success in betting since finding value will increase ROI (return on investment) over time. Also, punters who engage in arbitrage betting are using the same formula for all the outcomes of the event, a strategy that returns a profit regardless of the final result.
Example of value betting
To illustrate better I will give you an example. Arsenal play Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in a well-established London derby. The Gooners have been attributed a 50% chance to win while a Chelsea win was given 20% and a stalemate 30%.
You shop around and identify a bookmaker that offers odds of 2.20 for Arsenal to win. Using the formula described above, let’s find out the value for Mikel Arteta’s side to get all three points:
As you can see, the formula returned a +1.1 result which is the value of betting on Arsenal to win. Still, having a single betting account will not allow you to find all the time value bets. This is why I recommend you have active accounts with several bookies.
