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Earlier than the penultimate matchday of the league section of the Champions League, the reigning English, Spanish and French champions are all liable to being robotically eradicated.
When Manchester Metropolis go to Paris Saint-Germain and Actual Madrid host Salzburg on Wednesday (each 8pm GMT), all three heavyweights of the competitors know victory would make the ultimate matchday a considerably extra snug proposition.
The brand new 36-team single-league format of the Champions League means groups should end between ninth and twenty fourth to earn a spot within the knockout section play-offs, whereas automated development as one of many high eight groups just isn’t out of the query for the three sides.
101GreatGoals.com takes a take a look at how shut every of the established contenders are to being knocked out and the duty forward of them of their closing two matches of this stage.
Man Metropolis: Peril in Paris?
Seven factors of their first three video games put Metropolis on target to advance robotically, just for their subsequent kind to mirror their shocking home travails since November – by far the worst of Pep Guardiola’s nearly all-conquering reign.
Tame defeats at Sporting and Juventus got here both facet of a 3-3 draw at house to Feyenoord that was memorable for the mistaken causes, with the 2022/23 champions spurning a 3-0 lead after the 74th minute.
That has left them a degree above the elimination locations, albeit with a aim distinction at the very least 4 superior to any of the groups within the backside eight.
With PSG unbeaten at house domestically this season and in even better want of a optimistic consequence, a degree for Metropolis is likely to be welcome and would nearly actually depart their destiny of their arms once they host a Membership Brugge facet at the moment two factors above them on January 29 (8pm).
Victory would put them in a stronger place to complete between ninth and sixteenth and be seeded for the play-off draw. Solely two wins would give them an opportunity of robotically going by way of.
Metropolis have been final knocked out in the course of the preliminary stage within the 2012/13 season, once they drew all of their house video games and misplaced all three away in a bunch additionally containing Ajax, Actual Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Supervisor Roberto Mancini left on the finish of the marketing campaign.
Guardiola, who gained the competitors in 2009 and 2011 with Barcelona, has at all times reached the knockout stage throughout his 17 years as a supervisor with the Spanish membership, Bayern Munich and Metropolis.
The Spaniard’s shortest run within the competitors as a coach got here in his first season at Etihad Stadium in 2016/17, shedding by the now-abolished away targets rule after a 6-6 draw on combination with Monaco within the spherical of 16.
PSG: Within the elimination locations
Runners-up in 2019/20 and semi-finalists in two of the final 4 seasons, Paris are in probably the most precarious place of the three titans earlier than Matchday 7, a degree shy of escaping the elimination locations.
Drawing might not be sufficient to carry them above the road. Some extent would increase them above Dinamo Zagreb, who’re instantly larger, if the Croatian membership lose at Arsenal on Wednesday (8pm), however Stuttgart, who’re stage on factors with PSG, will anticipate to win on Tuesday (8pm) at a Slovan Bratislava facet nonetheless in search of their first level.
PSG are on an eight-match successful run however haven’t met opponents as doubtlessly harmful as Metropolis alongside the best way. They are going to be hoping to avoid wasting their finest for final, having adopted up a European run of 1 level from 4 video games with a 3-0 win at Salzburg on Matchday 6.
Defeat would ramp up the stress earlier than PSG head to Stuttgart on January 29 (8pm), when they’ll tackle opponents who’ve began the yr with three consecutive wins to maneuver fourth within the Bundesliga.
Paris have suffered a number of underwhelming campaigns – they have been knocked out within the spherical of 16 in 2021/22 and 2022/23 regardless of having Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar amongst their ranks – however have progressed from the preliminary section on every event throughout their present 12 consecutive years of participation.
The final time they fell on the first hurdle within the competitors was in 2004/05, when supervisor Vahid Halilhodzic was changed by Laurent Fournier in February.
Present supervisor Luis Enrique has by no means been eradicated on the first stage when he has coached within the Champions League, successful the title in his first season answerable for Barcelona in 2014/15.
The 54-year-old has guided Paris 9 factors clear as a part of an 18-game unbeaten begin on this season’s Ligue 1, though they needed to come from behind to win 2-1 at Lens on Saturday.
“I’m very proud of the victory,” the previous Spain boss stated afterwards, describing PSG as “in a great dynamic” and carrying “a whole lot of hope” for the Champions League.
Actual Madrid: Holders underneath menace
Together with Metropolis, Madrid have been the one workforce to win all six of their group stage matches on their solution to extending their very own report by successful the Champions League for the fifteenth time in 2023/24.
An exit this early appears unthinkable for the dominant power within the competitors, however defeats at Lille and Liverpool and a house loss to Milan imply Madrid are two factors above the elimination locations.
At house on Wednesday (8pm) to a Salzburg facet with 5 defeats and one win, Madrid will likely be robust favourites to complete the matchday trying upwards – however an finish to their two-match successful run in all competitions may put them in want of a consequence per week later (8pm) at Brest, who’re at the moment within the automated knockout stage locations.
Even the prospect of a play-off can be a shock for a squad containing the likes of Vinicius Jr, Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham, not least as a result of Madrid have made at the very least the semi-finals in 14 of the final 16 seasons.
They’ve by no means been knocked out on the first alternative in 70 years of involvement, though they exited within the spherical of 16 in 2018/19, sacking two managers throughout their first season after the departure of all-time Champions League high scorer Cristiano Ronaldo.
They have been knocked out on the similar stage the next season, shedding each legs of their spherical of 16 tie 2-1 to Metropolis underneath Zinedine Zidane.
Supervisor Carlo Ancelotti has gained the Champions League twice as a coach with Milan and 3 times as Madrid boss, however probably the most profitable supervisor within the historical past of the competitors has been knocked out within the group stage 3 times.
Ancelotti’s Parma solely misplaced one in all their six matches however have been nonetheless eradicated in 1997/98, when second-placed sides went out. The Italian then completed backside of a bunch with Juventus in 2000/01 and third with Napoli in 2018/19.
When are the Champions League knockout section play-offs?
Groups ending between the highest and backside eight will enter two-legged knockout section play-offs ties.
The primary legs will happen on February 11 and 12, adopted by the return matches per week later. The draw to resolve the ties will likely be held on January 31.
When is the Champions League spherical of 16?
The highest eight sides and the play-off winners will participate in spherical of 16 first-leg matches on March 4 and 5, adopted by the second legs per week later.
The draw for the spherical of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will happen on February 21.
